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Sometimes The Buzz Is Bigger Than The Song

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If you watched the Grammy Awards on February 4th earlier this year, you may recall Beyonce sporting a cowboy hat, a premonition of what was to come. “Texas Hold ‘Em”, the first single from her forthcoming album Cowboy Carter, dropped one week later during the Super Bowl. It was the latest in a series of big cultural moments for the superstar, who crossed boundaries to wide critical acclaim with Renaissance two years earlier.

If you’ve listened to Cowboy Carter in its entirety, you know it’s not really a Country album. Some songs fit certain genres and others are more challenging to define. But the reality is, Beyonce wore a cowboy hat to the Grammys, sports one on the album cover while waving an American flag, put “cowboy” in the name of the album, and released “Texas Hold ‘Em” as the first single. For better or worse, Cowboy Carter was branded as a Country project from the jump, and that led to an obvious question.

Would Country Radio play it?

If a Country programmer read Billboard on February 26th, she may have felt quite compelled to do so. “Beyonce’s Texas Hold ‘Em Hits No. 1 on Billboard Hot 100” blared the headline. The article mentions how the song hit number one on Billboard’s Country chart a week earlier, the first Black woman to achieve the feat. At that point, it had accumulated 29 million streams, up 51% from the previous week.

Beyonce

Beyonce hit #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 and Country charts with “Texas Hold ‘Em”. (Photo credit: A. Carter/Shutterstock.com)

February 26th was also the day “Texas Hold ‘Em” first appeared in our Integr8 USA national callout research in both our Country and Pop tests (at that time, our Pop formatted chart included CHR and Hot AC. Today, the two formats have their own reports). On both Integr8 USA Country and Pop, “Texas Hold ‘Em” debuted towards the bottom. But in Country at that early stage, the Like a Lot score was more than double the Dislike a Lot score. By mid-April, the song was 95% Familiar to Country listeners and plummeted to last in our Country research in a trended decline. This was driven by high polarization, with its “Dislike a Lot” score at least double that of every song but one other on the chart. Despite a different format and sample specifications, “Texas Hold ‘Em” didn’t fare much better on Integr8 USA Pop. Despite its big cultural moment, massive press, and strong streaming numbers, the song simply didn’t resonate with radio listeners.

Contrast this to “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” by Shaboozey, who was featured on two songs on Cowboy Carter. “A Bar Song”, released on April 12th, is in hundreds of millions of streams territory. It first appeared on Integr8 USA Country on May 13th with a 3.74, which ranked it a middling #18 out of 30 songs. But unlike “Texas Hold ‘Em”, Shaboozey’s Integr8 USA graph inclined each week. By August 12th, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” sat atop the Integr8 USA Country chart with a 4.23, at number one ahead of “I Had Some Help” by Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen.

Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” grew to claim the top spot of Integr8 USA’s Country chart

As is often the case in callout research, polarization is the unseen secret sauce that our subscribers will point to. While streaming numbers are very useful, and we take them into account when selecting hook lists for each Integr8 USA format, they hide the crucial component radio needs that streaming does not.

On-demand platforms, as a one-to-one medium, only need demand from that person. Radio, as a mass-appeal medium, needs to keep as many people tuned in as possible. Higher negatives equal a greater risk of tune-out. “Texas Hold ‘Em” has decent passion scores in our research. But it also has big negative scores, which doesn’t matter so much for streaming but really matters for radio.

We’re continuously learning new things with Integr8 USA, as it uncovers useful anecdotes for subscribers for Pop, Hot AC, Country, and Alternative. We’ve seen historically core format artists releasing songs that would seem like no-brainers that end up being duds in our research. We’ve seen a song with huge amounts of airplay from a buzzworthy artist performing just ok in Integr8 USA CHR and near the bottom on Integr8 USA Hot AC. We’ve seen some artists perform very well across multiple formats (like Shaboozey).

The proliferation of sources for programmers to grab information is great in many ways, but potentially detrimental in others. Don’t ignore other airplay outside of your own. Don’t ignore streaming numbers. Don’t ignore the buzz and cultural moments. But utilize callout research, local if you can, or a high-quality national option like Integr8 USA, to clearly understand how each song fits in your strategy for your listeners.

Press Releases

Coleman Insights Relaunches Integr8 USA National Callout Service

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RALEIGH, NC, SEPTEMBER 18, 2024 – Media research firm Coleman Insights announces changes to its Integr8 USA national callout music testing service, which the company launched in May 2023.

Integr8 USA originally served three formats with new music research—a combined Pop test for CHR and Hot AC, as well as tests for Country and Alternative. In response to client feedback, Integr8 USA is now offered for four formats, with CHR and Hot AC served with their own services. The new structure brings Integr8 USA into alignment with client strategies for both formats, including focused audience targeting and pacing that reflects each format’s respective music cycles.

Integr8 USA now offers 34 weekly new music reports and four recurrent reports. This slight reduction in the number of reports previously offered is more in sync with the strategic needs of music programmers and allows Coleman Insights to lower the price of the service to subscribers.

“This relaunch of Integr8 USA brings the service more in line with what our subscribers tell us they need,” said Coleman Insights president Warren Kurtzman. “The changes we’ve made make Integr8 USA more affordable and an easier fit into our clients’ 2025 budgets.”

Integr8 USA subscriptions are now available to radio stations, groups, and record labels for CHR, Hot AC, Country, and Alternative.

More information is available about Integr8 USA from Coleman Insights here.

Press Releases

Quest Global Research Group Inc. Acquires Coleman Insights, Expanding Offerings and Enhancing Client Services

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Oakville, Ontario – Sept 5, 2024: Quest Global Research Group Inc., a leader in the market research industry, is pleased to announce its acquisition of Coleman Insights, a prominent media research firm. This partnership will enable both companies to broaden their offerings and deliver enhanced services to clients across the market research community.

Founded in 2003 in Ontario, Canada, Quest is one of the industry’s leading online market research companies, operating in over 70 markets and employing over 200 people globally. Quest’s portfolio includes the online research data collection company Quest Mindshare, the panel management company SampleGurus, online panels Opinion Champ and Panel Champ, and the industry’s leading data quality platform: dtect.

Since 1978, Coleman Insights has delivered research that has helped media companies in more than a dozen countries build strong brands and develop great content. The company, which is headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina, has been a leader in the radio, podcasting, and streaming industries.

Coleman Insights’ integration into the Quest family will create a more comprehensive suite of services, leveraging each organization’s strengths to better meet evolving client needs. Combining Coleman’s strategic insights and Quest’s data collection capabilities, services, and technologies will offer more innovative solutions for solving clients’ biggest business challenges.

“We are thrilled to welcome Coleman into the Quest family,” said Greg Matheson, co-CEO of Quest. “This acquisition is a significant milestone in our growth strategy, enabling us to expand our service offerings and provide even greater value to our clients. The synergies between our companies will drive innovation and allow us to better support our clients’ needs.”

Coleman Insights will continue to operate under its brand and its existing team while benefiting from the expanded resources and capabilities of Quest. “After partnering with them for more than a decade, we know that Quest shares our commitment to quality and client satisfaction,” said Warren Kurtzman, President of Coleman. “By joining forces, we can enhance our offerings and provide our clients with a broader range of services, all backed by the expertise and resources of a larger organization. This partnership marks an exciting new chapter for Coleman Insights, and we look forward to what we can achieve together.”

For more information, please contact:

Jay Nachlis

VP, Consultant

jaynachlis@colemaninsights.com

 

Nicole Antic

Director, Business Administration

nantic@questmindshare.com

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Why Podcasters Must Urgently Adopt A Video Strategy

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Good morning from the world’s largest podcasting conference, Podcast Movement in Washington, DC! From the first time I attended this great event in Philadelphia six years ago, I felt an energy that always excites me about returning.

No one should debate podcasting’s strength as an audio medium. Like radio, there is power in the spoken word, in the ability to paint mental pictures and tell stories. It is magically portable. Easy to listen to on the go, whether in the car, while taking a walk, or riding the subway.

If you think about the ways early podcast consumers listened to podcasts, you might visualize this:

Apple Podcasts

Photo credit: Mojahid Mottakin / Shutterstock.com

The Apple Podcast logo was essentially the de facto logo for the medium, a true indication of the power of branding. Apple was the right platform for podcasting because the app was native to Apple devices—no need to go to the App Store and download it.

But consumer habits change.

While iOS is still the leading operating system over Android in the United States, it’s not by a ton (about 60%-40% according to TechRepublic), and globally Android dominates iOS (about 70%-30%).

So, it’s no longer just about the convenience of the native app on your phone. It’s what brands win the mind of the consumer. And it’s important to note some crucial changes that have taken place.

While Apple is a favorite of many creators, a remarkable thing happened to two other platforms on the consumer side.

  • Spotify went from 30 million active users in 2013 to 626 million in 2024.
  • YouTube went from 532 million active users in 2019 to 868 million in 2023.

Consumers made a behavioral shift to Spotify and YouTube because their brands grew, and they offered content their audiences found appealing. If you’re not putting extra energy into these platforms, you’re not fishing where the fish are.

One year ago, I presented the landmark “New Rules of Podcasting on YouTube” study at Podcast Movement in Denver with Steve Goldstein of Amplifi Media. This benchmark research project explored the perceptions and usage of video among American podcast consumers. Here are three key takeaways.

  1. 73% of podcast consumption is dominated by three platforms…YouTube, Spotify, and Apple.

One of these platforms is all video. One has publicly stated in recent months that it is going all-in on video. On my personal Spotify account, I’m now getting video podcast recommendations on my home page before audio versions.

  1. Consumers don’t see podcasting as an audio-only medium.

We were intentional in our study to not use the word “listen” when referring to a podcast because we felt it was important to understand whether consumers see podcasting as an audio-only medium. They used to, but they don’t anymore.

  1. More podcast consumers now say they consume their favorite podcast via audio and video than just audio.

If a fan of your podcast searches for a video version and it’s not there, do you think YouTube or Spotify’s algorithms will suggest other shows that will take your audience away from yours?

Of course they will.

After I presented this study, many subsequent conversations followed with creators and networks. We acknowledged that there is no “one size fits all” video solution for every podcast. Not every podcast needs to, or even should, offer complete episodes on video. Even if starting with the usage of video as a marketing tool, using trailers and clips, it is a great place to begin the journey.

And yet, there were two words I knew I could count on hearing from all of them.

“Yes, but”.

“Yes, but the views are miniscule relative to the time we spend”.

“Yes, but YouTube’s advertising restrictions are horrible”.

“Yes, but no RSS feed”.

“Yes, but we can’t sell it”.

“Yes, but I don’t have the staff”.

“Yes, but it’s a trend”.

As my therapist might say, your feelings are valid. But they miss the big picture.

Most of the research I conduct for podcasters at Coleman Insights is perceptual research. We may take a deep dive, for example, into the behavior of fans of Kids & Family podcasts or fiction podcasts. Maybe we’re digging into perceptions of sports podcast users.

This type of research is very different than top-line usage analytics, which don’t dig into brand images that influence behavior. Perceptions in podcasting are changing, and that is changing behavior.

In a couple of hours at 10:15 AM EDT, I’ll join a panel for a session called “Stop Leaving Impressions On The Table: Vodcasting Is Podcasting” moderated by Carl Weinstein, COO of Locked On Podcast Network. Locked On features a local podcast for every team in every major sport. Weinstein’s network jumped into vodcasting (video podcasting) years ago, and fully resisted “yes, but”. I asked him a few questions about their experience.

Q: When did Locked On embrace video? Why was it important for Locked On to embrace it early, when most podcasters are only now considering it as an integral part of their strategy?

A: We began adding the video simulcast of all our podcasts to our entire lineup in 2021. It was less about embracing it early than it was about meeting the audience where they were. The signs were already there in 2021, actually before then, that the audience was already defining a podcast differently than the industry was at that time. To reach the total potential audience, we needed to move towards them and could not expect them to move back towards us. We jumped in with both feet and never looked back.

Locked On Podcast Network Chief Operating Officer Carl Weinstein

Q: How has it performed compared to audio and what are some of the key differences? Why do you think it’s been so successful for you and not as successful for others?

A: Performance has been amazing. I think largely because we tapped into a totally new audience and also because discovery on the primary video platform, YouTube, is so much better than discovery on the traditional audio podcast apps. Hard for me to speak to what others are experiencing, but I think for us, we are tailor-made for the video platforms and experience. Our podcasts are daily, our podcasts are shorter than most others in the market (30 minutes or less), and we cover sports, targeting one of the most passionate, widest-reaching affinity groups in media.

Q: Seems many creators are concerned about tracking and attribution with YouTube. How have you handled that?

A: We have an amazing advertising ops team. We have developed our own systems and processes for tracking and reporting and have worked with our advertising partners to optimize each for their needs. We are also on OTT, both VOD (Video On Demand) and FAST TV (Free Advertising-Supported Streaming Television), so with each platform we must address a unique set of requirements and needs. Not necessarily easy, and certainly time and resource-consuming, but totally doable and worth the effort.

Press Releases

Coleman Insights Reveals Surprising Findings About Michael Jackson and Van Halen In New FACT USA National Music Tests

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RALEIGH, NC, AUGUST 12, 2024 – Media research firm Coleman Insights is releasing data from its FACT USASM National Music Tests for the Mainstream AC, Hot AC, Country, Alternative, Classic Hits, Classic Rock, and R&B formats.

In the FACT USA test for Mainstream AC, of the 80s, 90s, 00s, 10s, and 20s, the decade right in the middle—the 00s—performs strongest.

In the FACT USA test for Classic Hits, with four songs in the Top 10 and 12 of the Top 100, Michael Jackson is the best testing artist and, as Senior Consultant John Boyne notes, “It’s not even close.”

In the FACT USA test for Classic Rock, the firm notes a very poor showing by one of the format’s traditionally biggest artists. Van Halen has just one song in the Top 100, and 10 songs in the Bottom 100.

Coleman Insights will continue to release FACT USA “Facts Of The Week” on its social media platforms each week, with findings from Hot AC, Country, Alternative, and R&B still to come.

FACT USA subscriptions are now available to radio stations, streaming services, and other users, and results for all seven formats will be ready in time for implementation prior to this year’s Fall radio ratings period. For radio stations FACT USA subscriptions are capped at $5,000 per station, with lower prices for stations in smaller markets. Subscription packages are also available for national platforms.

More information is available about FACT USA from Coleman Insights here.

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All Hail This Branding Lesson From The Donut King

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My favorite thing about a long flight is discovering movies I’d never heard of.

My most recent find is “The Donut King” (if you’re an 80s film geek like me, you just whispered “Of Chicago” under your breath. If not, never mind, moving on…)

“The Donut King”, at its core, is a tremendous underdog story. It focuses on Ted Ngoy, a Cambodian immigrant who fled the oppressive Khmer Rouge regime in the mid-1970s and made his way to Southern California. He was trained to make donuts at Winchell’s, which operated around 200 stores on the West Coast at its peak. He purchased his first shop, Christy’s Donuts, in 1977, eventually expanded to 50 locations, sponsored other Cambodian refugees, taught them to make donuts, and was ultimately responsible for a California donut empire so entrenched, it foiled Dunkin Donuts’ plans in the state for decades (it has only recently pushed hard into the Golden State).

Ted Ngoy learned to make donuts at Winchell’s before starting his own empire (Photo credit: mikeledray / Shutterstock.com)

It feels a bit like a Behind The Music episode – tragedy, triumph over tragedy, a rise, and fall. There are many lessons to be gleaned from “The Donut King”.

But as is very typical of me and my marketing/branding brain, I hyper-focused on one thing that happened in the 90-minute film.

The pink box.

Not every donut store today uses a pink box, but a pink box certainly has become synonymous with donuts. But in the 1980s, no donut stores used pink boxes, generally only white ones.

That is, until Westco, the company that supplied the boxes to Ngoy’s stores, offered up boxes made of leftover pink cardboard stock that happened to fit a dozen donuts perfectly. They were cheaper, meaning a few pennies saved per box meant big savings over time.

So, the pink donut box may have happened by accident, but it doesn’t mean your pink box needs to be an accident.

The pink box has become synonymous with donuts (Photo Credit: The Image Party/shutterstock.com)

Broca’s Area is the part of your brain that anticipates the predictable, and literally tunes out what it knows and expects. Stimulating Broca’s Area engages our excitable, surprise emotion. In the 80s, if you’d seen a white box every time you stopped for donuts, seeing another white box would be unremarkable. But a pink box would stimulate Broca and capture your attention.

The principle drives “The Purple Cow” by marketer Seth Godin. You’ve seen so many brown and black cows in your life, so when you see one it’s just another cow. But what would you do if you saw a purple cow on the side of the road? These days, you might stop and take a selfie with the cow, perhaps a TikTok upload, #PurpleCow of course.

Why?

Not because it’s a cow. Because it’s a purple cow. And only because you’ve never seen a purple cow before. If purple cows started showing up everywhere, it wouldn’t be remarkable anymore.

What, never seen a purple cow before? (Photo credit: Davide Rigon/shutterstock.com)

What is perhaps the greatest thing about the pink donut box is just how simple it is. It didn’t even require an increase in budget, it was cheaper! But it was different, so it captured attention.

When you’re brainstorming the next marketing idea, the next way to promote a song, the next video for social media, the next design for the app, you should think strategically about how it will benefit and grow your brand. But also consider, how will it stimulate Broca? How will it surprise? How will it be different?

What’s your pink donut box?

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Netflix’s Streaming Pivot Included a Surprisingly Harsh Decision

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The list of companies that failed to pivot when their industries underwent major changes is long.

Blackberry couldn’t pivot to touchscreen smartphones.

Kodak couldn’t pivot to digital photography (ironic, since Kodak invented the first digital camera in 1975).

Blockbuster couldn’t pivot to streaming.

The story of how Blockbuster had a chance to purchase Netflix in 2000 for $50 million is perhaps the biggest business whoops of all-time (though if you think the Netflix we know today would exist under Blockbuster’s stewardship, you’re missing the entire point).

While I’ve always been fascinated by Netflix’s ability to move away from its core DVD-by-mail business to become a streaming and content-producing powerhouse, I never knew until now just how brutally they did so.

Netflix

Photo credit: Shutterstock/sitthiphong

In a recent New York Times interview, Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos discusses the company’s evolution and the realization that their DVD business (which was doing very well) would not last forever.

“In periods of radical change in any industry, the legacy players generally have a challenge, which is they’re trying to protect their legacy businesses. We entered into a business in transition when we started mailing DVDs 25 years ago. We knew that physical media was not going to be the future. When I met Reed Hastings in 1999, he described the world we live in right now, which is almost all entertainment is going to come into the home on the internet. And he told me that at a time when literally no entertainment was coming into the home on the internet. And it really helped us navigate this transition from physical to digital, because we just didn’t spend any time trying to protect our DVD business. As it started to wane, we started to invest more and more in streaming. And we did that because we knew that that’s where the puck was going. At one point, our DVD business was driving all the profit of the business and a lot of the revenue, and we made a conscious decision to stop inviting the DVD employees to the company meeting. We were that rigid about where this thing was heading.”

“We made a conscious decision to stop inviting the DVD employees to the company meeting.”

Photo Credit: Shutterstock.com/yuriyt

As a manager, I’m not sure I could ever be that cutthroat. But I can’t entirely pick it apart. When your entire universe, knowledge base, and salary comes from one thing, it certainly can color and bias your view of a new thing that’s going to destroy the thing that’s your current lifeblood.

Sarandos acknowledges how harsh it sounds, but explains, “It got the whole company in the mindset that we shouldn’t keep investing in the old business. It’s going to prevent us from investing in the new business, and the new business is going to get us to the next place.”

There are obvious parallels to other industries. And though I’m not suggesting you start disinviting members to company meetings, the Netflix lesson makes it abundantly clear that brand and industry evolution on this scale requires dramatic internal philosophical and cultural change.

Press Releases

Coleman Insights Launches FACT USA National Music Tests

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Subscription-based music testing service initially available for seven formats

RALEIGH, NC, JUNE 18, 2024 – Media research firm Coleman Insights announces the debut of its FACT USASM National Music Tests for the Mainstream AC, Hot AC, Country, Alternative, Classic Hits, Classic Rock, and R&B formats. Subscriptions are now available to radio stations, streaming services, and other users, and results for all seven formats will be ready in time for implementation prior to this year’s Fall radio ratings period.

Coleman Insights President Warren Kurtzman explains why the firm created FACT USA. “Everyone who programs music should have access to high-quality research, regardless of budget. With FACT USA, we’re able to offer data and insights about music tastes at an affordable price point.”

Every FACT USA study will use a national sample that reflects each format’s respective target audience. Subscribers will have access to summary reports detailing each study’s findings and song-by-song data will be delivered via The Analyst software from Cornerstone Research, in which programmers can sort by various measures including demographics and geography. Additionally, FACT USA will include EraGuideSM, Coleman Insights’ exclusive metric that helps align the data to a station or platform’s strategy.

For radio stations FACT USA subscriptions are capped at $5,000 per station, with lower prices for stations in smaller markets. Subscription packages are also available for national platforms. For an additional fee, subscribers may opt for a Coleman consulting package that includes a two-hour sorting session, and pre- and post-sort Music Monitor Analyses to ensure alignment between the music strategy and its song-by-song execution.

More information is available about FACT USA from Coleman Insights here.

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The Real Reason Behind Red Lobster’s Bankruptcy Filing

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Red Lobster filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and closed 50 locations this past week, and the company wants you to know the culprit.

Endless shrimp.

In seemingly every news story about the filing, the talking points were the same. Red Lobster offered an endless shrimp promotion last year, it was too successful based on the $20 price point (customers were apparently too gluttonous), the restaurant lost $11 million in the third quarter, and therefore the company filed for bankruptcy.

I’m so thankful I’m on their mailing list because otherwise, I wouldn’t have received an intimately personal email addressed, “Dear Guests” (I’ll get back to the email later).

There was something about this whole thing that smelled fishy (sorry, too easy).

Don’t get me wrong, $11 million isn’t chump change, but it didn’t feel to me like the kind of number that tips the largest seafood chain in the United States into bankruptcy. So, I looked up annual revenues, which recently topped around $2 billion.

$11 million is 0.55 percent of $2 billion.

What’s going on here?

Photo credit: Shutterstock/Tada Images

I’ve had some very nice experiences at Red Lobster, usually visiting when one of my kids needs cheddar biscuits on his birthday. Throughout his childhood (he’s 18 now), it was a generally pleasant annual experience…until last year.

Usually in my experience, Red Lobster had long waits and the lobby was full during prime dinner hours. This time, there was no one waiting. The restaurant was only about half full when we were seated. And then…

The table was sticky. The floors were filthy. The food was marginal and not as good. The service was terrible. The app to earn rewards didn’t work. I haven’t been back.

Yes, this was one location. But maybe I’m not the only one?

In a declaration filed with the bankruptcy court, Red Lobster reports that its customer count has declined by about 30% since 2019. According to CEO Jonathan Tibus, the company’s CEO, negative factors include inflationary pressures, unfavorable lease contracts, poor locations, and strategic missteps in luring customers. All of which may certainly play a role in their struggles.

But conspicuously not mentioned…could it be that maybe, just maybe, the customer experience declined so the customers stopped coming back?

An investor group named Thai Union acquired Red Lobster in 2020, made drastic cuts, and the chain has had five leaders in five years. It kind of feels like a radio station that keeps changing program directors and formats.

Now, about that email, addressed to “Dear Guests”.

It reminds you that Red Lobster’s always been there for you for celebrations. It tells you that Chapter 11 doesn’t mean it’s going out of business, and in fact cites Delta and Hertz as companies that also filed for bankruptcy. Hey! They’re doing just fine! The company ends by pimping Lobsterfest, Crabfest, and those Cheddar Bay Biscuits.

Signed, “Red Lobster”.

In an iconic 1988 United States Vice Presidential debate, Senator Dan Quayle compared his experience in Congress to that of JFK at his age. Lloyd Bentsen smiled at Quayle, and perfectly delivered the line, “Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy”.

Today, I’m here to tell Red Lobster, you’re no Delta.

As a member of both databases, I receive communications from each. Delta’s emails are written and signed by CEO Ed Bastian. He takes credit when things go well but is most impressive when things don’t go as well. In 2022, following a series of cancellation, delay, and customer service missteps, Bastian sent an email apologizing and laying out his plan to fix it. Today, I believe Delta’s app is the best in the business and customer service wait times have been drastically reduced. After missteps with their frequent flier program, there was Ed’s email, apologizing and taking steps to roll back the mistakes. Personal. Relatable. Empathetic.

“Dear Guests”, “Hey Delta filed for bankruptcy too”, “Lobsterfest!”, “Signed, Red Lobster” will not improve your customer engagement.

When brands are in trouble, the right move is to conduct a research deep dive with their customer base to determine where the issues lie. Then they fix them with a thoughtful strategic plan and coordinated execution.

Remember when Domino’s admitted their pizza wasn’t very good, fixed the problem, and then invested heavily in marketing to transparently admit they screwed up?

You could have bought a share of Domino’s stock for $3.86 in 2008. Today a share is about $512.

As the legendary Bubba once said to Forrest Gump, “Shrimp is the fruit of the sea. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, sauté it.” But shrimp isn’t the only reason why Red Lobster’s in bankruptcy. The brand has been damaged. Once a brand is damaged, it can be a tough road back.

I sincerely hope Red Lobster figures it out. My son hasn’t lost his taste for those cheddar biscuits.

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How False Causation Can Impair Your Performance

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On December 19, 2021, CNBC posted the following headline:

“Stocks slide to start the week as omicron fears intensify, Dow falls 430 points.”

On December 20, 2021, CNBC went with this:

“Dow jumps 560 points as market rebounds from omicron-triggered 3-day slide.”

Was Omicron really the reason why the United States stock market tumbled one day and surged the next?

Have a little fun. Search for stock market headlines on any random day.

On January 21st it was weaker than expected Netflix earnings.

January 18th it was a surge in oil prices.

Apparently, stocks rallied last Tuesday after Russia reported a pullback of troops surrounding Ukraine.

Stock market headlines will constantly have you believing that the day’s outcome was a result of something. Maybe Amazon’s success drove the market higher, or supply chain issues drove it lower. The thing about the stock market, that we all intrinsically and logically know, is there’s rarely one thing that drives the market’s performance on one given day.

Big events are the exception, like the collapse of the U.S. housing market that triggered the largest point drop in history on September 29, 2008. That was clear. But outside of major, earth-shaking events, the stock market is a classic case of correlation vs. causation.

Today’s rapid-fire nature of news churns out headline after headline for us to believe that daily stock market performance is due to causation. Oil prices caused stocks to drop. A troop pullback caused it to go up. Never mind the fact that on the day Russia announced a troop pullback, Airbnb announced revenue jumped 78%, beating expectations. On another day, that could have been the “trigger” of the market’s surge.

But in reality, causation is very difficult to prove. There is quite often correlation between events and the stock market, but the news jumps to causation conclusions. Why? Because we seek concrete answers. We need to know why something happened, and we need to know it now.

To those who rely on ratings as an arbiter to their job performance, this may sound eerily familiar. How many times do you see numbers go down or up on a monthly, weekly, or even daily basis and you attempt to find causation? Bad ratings? That’s when the air talent was on vacation, or the weather was bad that day. Good ratings? We ran a promotion! We changed the music rotations!

It just doesn’t work that way.

We are told, over and over, not to look at our 401k portfolios. Don’t even look at them except maybe a couple times a year. Why? Because the stock market will wobble, and at times the performance of your retirement account assets will scare you half to death. But everyone knows that over the long haul, the market always goes up.

Ratings are not that different. As our friend and former colleague Pierre Bouvard recently said, “The reality is your current performance is reflecting things that happened in the past year or a year ago.” And yet we obsess with the short-term, seeking causation where there is none.

Strong brands will occasionally wobble but will increase over time – just like the stock market. Weak brands will have far more wobbles and less stability. Just as major events are behind causation in the stock market, it is the big events that move the needle and are behind ratings causation – huge promotions, major talent acquisitions, format changes. Don’t let the lure of headlines claiming causation distract you from the big picture.